viernes, 6 de mayo de 2016

EL CONTRATO DE LA POLÉMICA

Aranguren defendió la compra de gas a Chile: "Es más barato que importar gasoil"

El ministro de Energía respondió sobre acuerdos suscritos por Enarsa para comprar volúmenes de GNL a un mayor valor al que se le paga a Bolivia o en otras licitaciones. Aseguró que son para reemplazar cargamentos de gasoil destinados a la generación eléctrica, más caros. La medida conseguirá un ahorro de casi US$50 millones para el Estado, dijo.

El ministro de Energía y Minería, Juan José Aranguren

El ministro de Energía, Juan José Aranguren, salió este viernes al cruce de las críticas por la decisión del Gobierno de comprarle gas a Chile a un precio de US$7 el millón de BTU, cuando ya se le compra a Bolivia a un valor de US$3 y se importa gas licuado a un costo de US$6,5 por el mismo volumen. Según el funcionario, contra lo que se sostuvo, la medida le significa al país un ahorro de US$46 millones, porque lo que se reemplaza es energía generada a partir de gasoil, que tiene un costo mayor.
“Nuestra obligación es tratar de hacerle la vida más fácil a la gente y que haya disponibilidad de producto cuando se necesita, que cuando se acerca el invierno haya gas. Por eso tenemos que tratar de conseguir ese producto de la mayor cantidad de fuentes posibles”, subrayó Aranguren en declaraciones a radio Mitre.
El mismo ministro mencionó que “hoy la Argentina importa gas de Bolivia a un US$3 la unidad de medida” e “importa gas licuado a aproximadamente US$6,5 la misma unidad”, pero señaló que en invierno, cuando falta gas, “se quema gasoil para generar energía eléctrica”.
“Si tuviéramos acceso a otra fuente de gas natural tendríamos mayor disponibilidad para que las amas de casa tengan gas en sus hogares o no le cortemos el gas a las industrias o no les cortemos el GNC a los taxistas”, continuó y afirmó: “Tuvimos posibilidad de comprarle gas a Chile, que tiene también plantas de regasificación con capacidad ociosa, y lo compramos a US$7 el millón de BTU, y desplaza gasoil, que lo compramos a US$10, lo que le significa al Estado un ahorro de US$46 millones”.
¿Por qué no comprarle más gas a Bolivia o traer más gas por barco? “Bolivia –respondió Aranguren- le vende a Brasil a Argentina y no tiene más gas. Y en el invierno está completa la posibilidad de recibir más gas por barco. Por lo tanto la oportunidad que teníamos para reemplazar el gasoil era ésta”. “Estamos reemplazando un producto que nos sale US$10,5 por millón de BTU por otro que nos sale US$. Obviamente es más caro que el que nos sale 3, pero no hay”, concluyó.
Sobre la polémica desatada, también respondieron las autoridades de Enarsa, la empresa encargada de la operación. E n una entrevista con el portal lapolíticaonline.com -que reveló la operación-, el presidente de la empresa de energía, Hugo Balboa y el director, José María Zuliani, destacaron que el acuerdo con la firma Solgas "era la única y más conveniente opción de abastecimiento de gas para el invierno” y se tuvo que aceptar las condiciones fijadas por los proveedores, como el pago por adelantado, por “la falta de confianza en el país que tienen las empresas chilenas”.
Balboa y Zuliani también argumentaron en el mismo sentido que Aranguren sobre la conveniencia del GNL sobre el gasoil, por un tema de costos.
Además, respondieron sobre una clausula de confidencialidad en otro acuerdo, esta vez con la estatal ENAP, y lo diferenciaron del que firmó YPF con la estadounidense Chevron.“La confidencialidad –señalaron --recae sobre las cuestiones económicas porque la parte no quiere que otra competidora conozca los detalles del acuerdo”.

Oil Prices Buoyed As Global Supply Outages Accumulate

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Friday, May 6, 2015

This week the oil markets experienced something that used to be common but has become a rarity since the collapse of oil prices almost two years ago: major unexpected supply disruptions. It is not that there have been no disruptions since mid-2014, just that they have not mattered in a world awash in oil. But as the supply and demand curves continue to converge, geopolitical upheaval is moving the needle on oil prices again.

The largest disruption, of course, came from Canada, where forest fires have torched large swathes of boreal forest near major oil sands operations (more on that below). Oil prices initially surged on the news in the middle of the week, but fell back following EIA numbers showing an uptick in storage levels. The markets also seemed to digest the fact that Canada’s outage will be temporary, and the world still has problems with oversupply.

Wildfires continue in Alberta. Forest fires spread in Alberta, and apocalyptic images spread around the globe, showing blazing fires and black haze engulfing much of Fort McMurray and the surrounding area. An estimated 80,000 people were forcibly evacuated from the city. Several oil sands companies said that they had reduced or shut down oil production in the region. Morgan Stanley estimates that about 400,000 to 550,000 barrels of production has been temporarily affected. Reuters pegs the outage at 640,000 barrels per day, while another estimate says 1 mb/d has been disrupted. The outages probably will not last too long as they have more to do with evacuated personnel than they do with damage to facilities. Nevertheless, the disruptions helped to push up crude prices this week.

Militants attack Chevron platform. Nigerian militants attacked a platform operated byChevron (NYSE: CVX) in the Niger Delta. "Its Okan offshore facility in the Western Niger Delta region was breached by unknown persons," said Chevron in the statement. "The facility is currently shut-in and we are assessing the situation, and have deployed resources to respond to a resulting spill."

Outages around the world start to accumulate. In addition to the huge, if temporary, losses from Canada, supplies seem to be falling in multiple places around the globe. U.S. oil production is down 800,000 barrels per day from its April 2015 peak. Venezuela lost 188,000 barrels per day in the first quarter due to aging oilfields and an economic crisis. Latin America on the whole lost 441,000 barrels per day in the first quarter.

Libya is also facing a potential disruption. The country is already producing less than a quarter of what it used to produce in the Qaddafi era, but rival governments are fighting over control of the country’s oil. The Eastern government is attempting to block exports from the Hariga port, which could knock off another 150,000 barrels per day. Iraq is another country where supply outages have hit temporarily. A dramatic cut in upstream investment, however, could lead to longer-term decline. In short, supply disruptions are accelerating the ongoing trend in the oil markets, as supply falls and demand rises. Some of it will be temporary, but it is bullish for prices all the same.

Some highlights from this week’s earnings reports.

•   Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) reported an 83 percent decline in quarterly profit, year-on-year.

•   Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY) reported a small profit of $78 million, but that included a $203 million tax benefit. Excluding that, Occidental would have posted a loss. OXY’s production climbed 11 percent from a year earlier to 590,000 barrels per day, but that is down 1.2 percent from the fourth quarter.

•   Apache (NYSE: APA) saw its stock surge by 6.7 percent after reporting a smaller than expected loss for the quarter – a net loss of $489 million.

•   Continental Resources (NYSE: CLR) saw its share price skyrocket by 12 percent after reporting a net loss of $198 million. Production rose 3 percent quarter-on-quarter, and the company beat revenue estimates.

•   Transocean (NYSE: RIG) also beat expectations, reporting net income of $254 million. The stock jumped by 3.5 percent. But its rig utilization rate continues to fall as upstream companies reduce drilling.

•   Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK) reported a loss of $964 million, in line with estimates. Its stock was up 6 percent on the news, boosted by a deal it sealed with Newfield Exploration to sell $470 million in assets.

•   Weatherfield (NYSE: WFT) saw its share price plunge by 20 percent after its quarterly results disappointed, its worst-ever trading day. The company lost $239 million in the first quarter.

•    Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN) was up 2.4 percent after reporting a smaller than expected loss of $3.1 billion.

•   Repsol (BME: REP), the Spanish oil giant, reported a current cost of supplies (net profit) of $1.24 billion for the quarter, up 6 percent from a year earlier.

TransCanada receives permit for gas pipeline. TransCanada (NYSE: TRP)received the last two necessary permits to construct a natural gas pipeline that would connect Alberta gas to Canada’s Pacific Coast, a conduit that would allow gas to be exported abroad. The pipeline network is expected to cost $13 billion, but the company is expected to make a final investment decision by the end of the year. Canada’s proposed LNG export terminals face substantial questions about their economic viability, however, as LNG markets are in a state of oversupply.

EV market heating up. The electric vehicle sector continues to move quickly, and a series of interesting announcements came out this week. GM and Lyft announcedthat they would be testing self-driving electric cars on public roads within a year. The details are not finalized, but the move will offer a bit of demand for GM’s upcoming release of its mass market EV, the Bolt. Separately, the state of California is looking at allowing the major utility, Pacific Gas & Electric, to build 7,500 EV charging stations using the proceeds from an electricity rate increase on the utility’s ratepayers. A rate increase could raise $160 million for the effort and substantially expand the number of charging stations, but private EV charging station developers say the move will crowd out private investment.

In our Numbers Report, we take a look at some of the most important metrics and indicators in the world of energy from the past week. Find out more by clicking here.

Thanks for reading and we’ll see you next week.

Best Regards,

Evan Kelly
Editor, Oilprice.com

jueves, 5 de mayo de 2016

As Oil Markets Tighten, Geopolitical Events Matter Again

Oil prices jumped on Thursday as surprise outages came from Canada and Libya, reversing several days of losses. WTI and Brent surged by more than 4 percent in early trading on May 5.

The hellish wildfires sweeping swathes of Alberta near Fort McMurray forced the evacuation of tens of thousands of people. Alberta’s boreal forests are suffering through a bout of unusually warm and dry weather, and the tinderbox ignited and is quickly spreading. Wildfire officials in Alberta say that the fire could continue to grow, probably to about 100 square kilometers, and last at least until the weekend.

The fires forced several oil sands companies to ratchet down operations as employees and their families fled the region. Suncor Energy said that it “conducted an orderly shutdown of its base plant operations” near Fort McMurray, affecting 350,000 barrels per day of production. And because of the shortage of diluent in the region, Suncor said that its “in situ facility operations are running at reduced rates,” and “Syncrude facilities are also operating at reduced rates.”

Royal Dutch Shell also announced that it had shut down its Albian Sands mining operations. “While our operations are currently far from the fires, we have shut down production at our Shell Albian Sands mining operations so we can focus on getting families out of the region,” a spokesperson said. Shell produces 250,000 barrels of oil per day from its facilities and provided no timeline for when it expects to be back online.

Husky Energy said that it reduced production at its Sunrise oil sands project by two-thirds, ramping down to 10,000 barrels per day.

The outages are hard to quantify and their duration is also uncertain. But the fires immediately pushed up oil prices for Canadian crude. The outages may not last long, however, since the fires haven’t caused damage to any oilfields or mining operations. “We don’t have facilities at risk at this point, what we have is a manpower issue that is arguably temporary and we have to wait and see what that means longer term,” Tim Pickering, president of Auspice Capital Advisors Ltd., told the Financial Post. Western Canada Select, a benchmark price for Canadian oil, saw its discount to WTI shrink by 73 cents to $12.84 per barrel on Wednesday, itsnarrowest point in more than two months this week.

Thousands of miles away another potential oil supply outage is also putting upward pressure on prices. Libya’s oil production is a fraction of what it once was before its civil war, and two rival governments continue to fight for control of the country’s resources while also trying to fend off ISIS attacks. But the political battle could escalate, as the government in the East is moving to block oil exports from its territory.

In April, the Eastern government failed to export oil on its own due to international sanctions. The United Nations and the international community saw the unilateral move as a threat to the country’s fragile reconciliation process. But the eastern government is not giving up, as news reports surface that Glencore was unable to load oil at a terminal in Tobruk in the East because of the Eastern government’s interference. If Libya’s Tripoli-based National Oil Company is unable to export oil because of the dispute, some of Libya’s eastern oil fields could see production interrupted. The Hariga port in Tobruk normally exports more than 150,000 barrels per day.

In years past, a supply disruption like the ones seen in Canada and Libya would lead to a spike in oil prices. Since the market downturn in mid-2014, supply disruptions have had a much more muted effect, drowned out by a global glut of crude oil. The markets still need more time to reach a balance, but rising demand and falling supply are starting to chip away at the glut. That means unforeseen geopolitical events carry a lot more weight than they did in, say, 2015.

"The difference today compared with a year ago is the market is starting to price in supply disruptions, whereas in a market that is totally oversupplied, you don't care about losing half a million barrels a day (in production)," Petromatrix strategist Olivier Jakob said in a Reuters interview. "The market is becoming much more sensitive to supply disruptions."

By Nick Cunningham of Oilprice.com

Chevron OTC commentary: Don’t overlook promise of natural gas

Posted by FuelFix.com

Date: May 03, 2016

By Ali Moshiri
President, Chevron Africa and Latin America

While oil is likely to steal the spotlight at the Offshore Technology Conference this week in Houston, the industry cannot underestimate the promise and potential of natural gas. Successful natural gas development in emerging markets – where the gas resources are abundant – could spur economic growth and improve living standards.

As emerging economies look to be part of the gas opportunity value chain, we must ask ourselves what it takes to be successful.
Regions like Africa, Latin America, and parts of Asia share a unique set of challenges in the quest to meet energy demand through natural gas.

They have limited infrastructure, fewer regulatory and contractual frameworks, and a less mature utilities and service industry than in developed economies.

Some of these regions are starving for electricity. Globally, there are approximately 1.2 billion people – 17 percent of the global population – who don’t have access to power at all, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Many more endure an electricity supply grid that is simply unreliable. More than 95% of these people are either in sub-Saharan Africa or developing Asia.

At the same time, more than 2.7 billion people, or 38 percent of the world’s population, are estimated to use solid biomass such as wood for cooking. Developing Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa once again have the lion’s share of the world’s total.

During the next two decades, the demand for energy will continue to rise driven by demographics and infrastructure development.

The global middle class is expected to double to nearly 5 billion, which means twice as many people will need fuels for heating, mobility and manufacturing. The world is going to need all forms of energy, and crude oil and natural gas are indispensable to match this energy equation.

Amid this urgency for reliable and affordable energy, it’s imperative to build the infrastructure necessary to use natural gas in the developing world. Natural gas is an abundant, cleaner-burning fossil fuel that is economical to produce and commercialize; complementary to renewables, such as solar, wind or hydro power; and increasingly being used in transportation vehicles.

More important for emerging economies, natural gas is an economic environmentally acceptable fuel for generating electricity. Universal access to electricity, according to IAE, is expected to be attained in the Middle East, Latin America, and Asia by 2030 while growth will continue in Sub-Saharan Africa. Better infrastructure for the utilization of regional natural gas supplies could increase access to electricity and contribute to this transformation

The development of the natural gas industry stimulates local economies via domestic consumption and creates significant foreign revenue from exports and. Foreign direct investment, leadership and partnerships could play a major role in overcoming hurdles to achieve these goals.

Governments need to offer energy and utility companies the right incentives to look at the entire natural gas value chain. For example, the contract terms for natural gas producers need to be internationally competitive so companies will increase their investment and, consequently, their production.

Policies should also incentivize the investment in much-needed infrastructure, the muscle and bone of modern economies. For example, the existing power distribution infrastructure in Sub-Saharan Africa, including pipelines and power-generation plants, is often not available, reliable or sufficient.

Additionally, many major private investors are waiting to see if governments can establish policies that can boost political and regulatory stability.

Gas-rich nations, such as Nigeria and Angola, have taken significant steps to better use their resources. Through the investment of billions of dollars, large oil-and-gas producers have sharply reduced routine flaring of natural gas that is extracted along with crude oil – known as associated natural gas. Chevron, one of the largest oil and gas producers in Nigeria, has reduced routine gas flaring by more than 90 percent from 2008 to 2016.

Despite steps like this, there is still work to be done to increase domestic use of the gas in West Africa and other emerging markets.
Government, industry and private investors – all of us – must take every opportunity to efficiently convert natural gas resources into valuable fuel for generating electricity.

Providing reliable energy can create sustainable expansion of the emerging economies. This will be vital for driving the future economic transformation of the developing world and support for the global economy.

El Golfo San Jorge resignó casi $ 2.700 millones en regalías

El Golfo San Jorge resignó casi $ 2.700 millones en regalías

El crudo Medanito se vende exclusivamente al mercado local, que en 2015 pagó un promedio de u$s 68 por barril, mientras que el Escalante se exporta a valores más bajos. Eso explica por qué las regalías de Neuquén crecieron un 3%, al tiempo que las de Chubut y Santa Cruz cayeron un 23% y un 18% en cada caso.

www.petroquimica.com.ar

Los datos finales del volumen de regalías petroleras captado por la industria nacional de Oil & Gas ilustran con contundencia la dramática situación que, por razones externas y particularidades internas, atraviesa actualmente la cuenca del Golfo San Jorge.
Según el Ministerio de Energía, a lo largo de 2015 Chubut y Santa Cruz, las dos provincias productoras del crudo Escalante –variedad que no procesan las refinadoras locales y que tiene como destino mayoritario el mercado internacional–, recibieron u$s 179 millones menos (al cambio actual, unos $ 2.685 millones) que el año anterior.
En concreto, las arcas chubutenses perdieron un 23% anual (al recaudar alrededor de u$s 107 millones –o $1.605 millones– menos que en 2014), en tanto que las santacruceñas resignaron un 18% (con u$s 71,5 millones –o $ 1.072 millones– menos). En comparación con las cifras de 2011, la pérdida de ingresos de Chubut es de u$s 124,6 millones (o sea, unos $ 1.869 millones).
Distinto fue el caso de Neuquén, donde la crisis se vio en buena proporción paliada por la aplicación de medidas de sostenimiento del valor interno del barril. La tradicional plaza productora del crudo Medanito, que en su totalidad se comercializa puertas adentro, incrementó su nivel de regalías cerca de un 3%, al captar unos u$s 333,5 millones –o $ 5.002,5 millones– (frente a los u$s 324 millones –o $ 4.860 millones– de la temporada anterior).

Las dos provincias productoras del crudo Escalante –variedad que no procesan las refinadoras locales y que tiene como destino mayoritario el mercado internacional–, recibieron u$s 179 millones menos (al cambio actual, unos $ 2.685 millones) que el año anterior.

Al difícil panorama que muestra la cuenca del Golfo San Jorge debe sumarse la creciente presencia de agua en la producción petrolera de sus yacimientos maduros, lo que viene provocando una suba exponencial en los costos de extracción. Según la consultora Oil Production Consulting, la participación hídrica se elevó paulatinamente desde un 86% en 1998 hasta un 92,5% en la actualidad.
En definitiva, en un contexto signado por el abaratamiento del precio del Escalante, las producciones de Chubut y Santa Cruz ofrecen cada vez menos crudo, con cada vez más agua (salada).

Eficiencia y eficacia

A decir de Marcelo Hirschfeldt, titular de Oil Production Consulting, para que los costos de la industria hidrocarburífera se mantengan competitivos, el manejo del agua es un factor cada vez más relevante. “Más allá de la realidad de los precios, si la actividad en la cuenca del Golfo San Jorge aspira a ser sustentable en el tiempo será preciso consolidar un marco de racionalidad y análisis. Las operadoras deberán mejorar en la utilización del agua para la recuperación secundaria; es decir, optimizar la reinyección del líquido en las formaciones para aumentar el factor de recupero de las reservas”, asegura.
En cuanto al potencial no convencional de la cuenca, cree necesario seguir apostando por la exploración, aunque admite que demandará mucho tiempo y dinero evaluar la viabilidad económica y la magnitud de los recursos y eventuales reservas.
“Lo prioritario debe ser incorporar el factor de recupero de reservas como objetivo a lograr, en el marco de un plan estratégico de desarrollo de los recursos existentes”, recalca.
En su opinión, el desarrollo del Golfo San Jorge requerirá, más que nunca, eficiencia, eficacia, profesionalismo y gente que tome decisiones para optimizar la producción, los costos y las reservas. “Será clave fortalecer el vínculo entre el ámbito empresarial y el universitario, con la certeza de que aún tenemos mucho petróleo por aprovechar, pero hacerlo será cada vez más caro”, concluyó.

Nuevos estímulos

Para darle un poco de alivio a la castigada extracción petrolera en Chubut y Santa Cruz, el Ministerio de Energía acaba de lanzar la Resolución 21/2016, mediante la cual creó un programa de estímulo a la exportación del crudo Escalante.
La norma reconoce que “aun cuando la mayor parte de la producción local de petróleo crudo pesado se procesa en el mercado interno, existe un excedente que no puede ser procesado en las refinerías locales, que se destina a la exportación y que, por lo tanto, se ha visto afectado por el actual contexto internacional de disminución en los precios”.
En ese sentido, promueve el establecimiento de “un mecanismo que permita no sólo mantener el nivel de actividad de la cuenca del Golfo San Jorge, sino también aumentar su producción, con el objetivo de mantener el empleo regional, así como favorecer el crecimiento económico y el desarrollo local, posibilitando a la vez un incremento de las exportaciones y su consecuente beneficio en la balanza comercial energética”.
Con ese fin, toma como referencia el valor del barril del Mar del Norte (o “Brent”) para aplicar un subsidio de u$s 75 por barril a la venta al exterior de la variedad Escalante, siempre que la cotización internacional sea inferior a los u$s 47,50.
De manera complementaria, el gobernador de Chubut, Mario Das Neves, pidió al Ministerio de Hidrocarburos de su provincia que termine de redactar una regulación adicional que aportará un estímulo de u$s 2,5 más por cada unidad exportada (por lo que el subsidio al crudo chubutense llegará a los u$s 10 por barril).

CRISIS PETROLERA - Das Neves apoya las medidas de los gremios

Das Neves apoya las medidas de los gremios

El gobernador habló hoy en el marco del acto de firma de los contratos de construcción de 300 viviendas en Comodoro Rivadavia, que contó con un gran acompañamiento de trabajadores de la UOCRA en el Salón de los Constituyentes de la Casa de Gobierno, en Rawson.

“Tenían todo el derecho de motorizar conflictos. Priorizaron el diálogo y el mantenimiento de la paz social”, afirmó Das Neves en relación a la actuación que le cupo a los gremios ante los conflictos.

También, respaldó la movilización que tendrá lugar el viernes en Comodoro Rivadavia “con 12 horas de inactividad, porque nosotros vamos a demostrar que existimos. No somos conejitos de India”.

Por otro lado, el mandatario chubutense envió un claro mensaje a los senadores y diputados nacionales que representan a la provincia en el Congreso de la Nación: “lo digo con todo respeto, los senadores nacionales representan al Estado de Chubut y los diputados nacionales al pueblo de la provincia del Chubut, entonces se tienen que poner la misma camiseta que es la defensa de los intereses de los chubutenses”.

El gobernador recordó que “en septiembre se va a comenzar a discutir el presupuesto nacional para el año próximo y es ahí donde pueden quedar plasmadas las grandes obras que no soportan los presupuestos provincial y de los municipios”.

“Ahí es donde se tienen que poner la misma camiseta, porque tienen que representar a Chubut para poder incluir las obras importantes que se necesitan”, señaló Das Neves.

Por último, comentó que “en esto tenemos que jugar una sola posición, porque estamos hablando de obras. No estamos hablando de movimientos políticos. Son obras que tienen que estar plasmadas en el presupuesto nacional, para que se puedan plasmar en el año 2017”.

“No alcanzan el discurso y las puestas en escena, la gestión es cuando se ve plasmada en los hechos. De las palabras estamos cansados. No me interesa que cada uno actúe en el espacio político que quiera, pero este partido lo tienen que jugar todos con la misma camiseta”, finalizó, refiriéndose a los legisladores nacionales.